In the face of lingering global uncertainty, Russia’s protracted conflict with Ukraine defies expectations of a quick resolution. Despite a Ukrainian counteroffensive and Russia grappling with internal dissent, the war has stretched for almost 500 days, challenging any forecast of the conflict’s course and resolution. A discussion featuring insights from Dr. Aparna Pande, director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute, and Prassenjit Lahiri, a senior partner at South Asia-based consulting firm SFC Asia (Social Friendly), takes a comprehensive look at the conflict’s impacts and potential outcomes.
Unexpectedly, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to cast a long shadow over global geopolitics. Russia’s president, Vladmir Putin, initially thought his military intervention in Ukraine would be a swift and decisive action, but the reality has proven to be far different. Now, both Russia and Ukraine are locked in an unyielding stalemate. The conflict has resonated across the world, leading to spikes in inflation, energy shortages, and strained diplomatic relations. Repairing the damage will undoubtedly be a lengthy process.
Dr. Pande dives into the intricacies of this situation, suggesting that neither Russia nor Ukraine appears poised for a swift victory. This prolonged conflict has taken a significant toll on both countries, leading to extensive destruction in Ukraine and internal discord in Russia. For Putin, the extended war time has unearthed simmering domestic opposition. He is left to navigate a precarious position, balancing his grip on power against the desires of a populace reluctant to wage a war they did not ask for.
A key concern is Russia’s potential reliance on mercenary groups to bolster its forces, which Dr. Pande sees as problematic. “When a state outsources its coercive power to non-state entities, it creates problems for the state. The state should have the monopoly on force,” she explains. Despite a recent failed mutiny and upheavals in Russia’s military ranks, Putin remains formidable, sustained by his paramilitary force and considerable political power.
The Russia-Ukraine war has had far-reaching effects on global energy markets. As a significant supplier of crude oil, Russia’s embroiled conflict and retaliatory stance towards Western Europe have precipitated a global energy crisis. Dr. Pande notes this has complicated relations with countries like China and India. While China’s relationship with Russia has deepened, India’s historical ties have dwindled, with Russia leaning more towards China in recent times.
In the course of their discussion, Lahiri posed an intriguing question to Dr. Pande, touching on the intricate geopolitical dance among Russia, China, and India. “Does a weakened Russia result in an increasingly assertive China, with potential implications for India?” Lahiri queried.
Dr. Pande concurred with Lahiri’s assessment, noting the potential ramifications of such a power shift. A vulnerable Russia could indeed inadvertently embolden China, thereby increasing China’s influence over the region, Dr. Pande admitted.”Should this occur, it could result in Chinese decisions impacting Russia, an outcome that would be far from favorable for India. This assertion highlights the intricate ripple effects that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have on the broader geopolitical fabric.
Dr. Pande also elaborates on the potential challenges India could face. India’s military heavily relies on Russian hardware, and a border dispute with China could strain Russia’s ability to supply weapons. India’s shifting relationships, particularly its growing alignment with the West, further complicate matters. “India also sources weapons from Israel, France, and the United States. A recent trip to the U.S. saw the signing of defense agreements with General Electric,” Pande adds.
Mr. Lahiri skillfully navigates the conversation towards potential outcomes, raising questions about the role of OPEC and exploring Dr. Pande’s perspective on the future. The only consensus appears to be the enduring nature of the conflict, which may extend for months or even years, barring any dramatic concessions from either side.
Despite the theories circulating about a potential coup against Putin, Dr. Pande remains skeptical. Given Putin’s extensive security measures and continued control, such an event seems unlikely. Yet, as the conflict persists, the world must adapt. New alliances may form, and geopolitical shifts will continue at a gradual pace until a decisive event brings about a conclusion to this protracted conflict.
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